Goldman Sachs predicts diesel prices will remain high through 2027 due to refinery constraints and the need to rebuild depleted inventories. The bank expects global diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads to average above $40 per barrel in 2027, more than double their usual level of around $20. Refining capacity outside China is expected to contract by approximately 300,000 barrels per day in 2026, while roughly 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern refining capacity remains offline. Restocking global inventories could take up to two years. The G7 announced the release of 100 million barrels of crude and refined products over four months, a measure deemed insufficient to address long-term structural supply problems.
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