European diesel prices have surged ahead of U.S. prices due to growing concerns over a potential U.S. export ban, reflecting the continent’s heavy reliance on American diesel supplies. The prediction market now estimates a 6% probability of an export ban announcement by September 30, down from 16% previously, while the probability for October 31 stands at 22%. Despite the price surge, the likelihood of a new crude oil all-time high by the end of September remains very low at 0.4%.
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