The US quarterly estimated tax deadline falls on September 15, 2026, coinciding with the opening day of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which could pressure bitcoin liquidity if cash transfers from bank reserves to the Treasury tighten dollar funding conditions. Weekly-average bank reserves reached approximately $2.991 trillion as of September 9, while the Treasury General Account declined to $883.3 billion on the same basis. Treasury and the Fed have tools to cushion the transfer, including reduced short-term bill auctions and the Standing Repo Facility providing temporary cash against securities. The key signal to watch is whether short-term funding spreads widen relative to Fed-administered rates as taxes settle, with wider spreads consistent with funding pressure.
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