Advisers to President Trump have reportedly warned that the ongoing conflict with Iran could extend through the remainder of his presidency. The U.S.-Iran war, which began in February 2026, has seen continued military actions including U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. Prediction markets pricing the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal including Iran Reconstruction Funding by end of 2026 have declined, with YES pricing falling from 12% to 11.5%. This shift reflects growing skepticism about reaching a diplomatic resolution soon, as sustained military exchanges appear to be influencing market sentiment against a swift agreement.
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