On Polymarket, traders have wagered between $119K and $132K that OpenAI’s IPO closing market cap will land between $500B and $750B, despite the market pricing this outcome at only 4-6% probability. The company is currently valued at $852B on private markets. The most likely outcome according to traders is No IPO, commanding a 62-67% probability. CEO Sam Altman has reportedly stated he prefers no IPO unless the company can command a valuation above $1 trillion.
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