The Wall Street Journal reports a shift in strategic dynamics around the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seemingly losing ground in its standoff with the United States. Both nations have been leveraging control over this critical maritime chokepoint, each believing time would work in their favor. However, the trend now appears to be turning against Iran, with reduced likelihood of traffic normalization and a U.S.-Iran agreement by the September 15 deadline. Market odds simultaneously suggest an increase in the chance of regime change in Iran by the end of 2026. These developments could have significant implications for geopolitical dynamics and energy markets in the coming months.
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