Arthur Hayes has identified EUR/JPY as a market alarm for crypto traders, but the Federal Reserve channels that would transmit currency stress into dollar liquidity remain dormant. The pair fell 2.38% in two days to 181.21 on September 3, while remaining 29.4% above his 140 liquidity threshold. FIMA repo usage stands at zero dollars outstanding, and the New York Fed has scheduled no reserve-management purchases, according to the latest official data. French 10-year sovereign yields reached 4.21% on September 3, while euro-area banks held approximately 1.6 trillion euros in dollar repo exposure as of November 2024. Bitcoin traded around $81,008 and Ether around $2,498 at the time of this analysis.
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