Analysts believe that rising costs and public opposition to US-Israel military actions in Iran might prompt President Donald Trump to postpone de-escalation efforts until after the US midterm elections. Market movements reflect cautious optimism regarding potential US-Iran negotiations. Market odds for Iran Reconstruction Funding in a US-Iran deal in 2026 stand at approximately 11%, indicating this cautious outlook. Trump’s domestic political calculus appears to shape market expectations for a potential 2026 deal.
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