The European Union’s top military official has labeled Russia’s hybrid attacks as the bloc’s « most significant strategic threat. » These activities include sabotage, cyberattacks, and covert operations as part of the broader Russia-Ukraine conflict. EU and NATO member states have also been affected since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The escalation suggests increased risk of military tensions, although Russia is not currently in open warfare with the EU. Market pricing indicates a 25.5% probability of a NATO-Russia military clash by the end of 2026.
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