European Central Bank economists found that a 1% increase in synthetic securitisation issuance corresponds to a 0.07% rise in dividend payouts, compared to just 0.02% for corporate loan growth, making the dividend effect three times larger. Outstanding synthetically transferred corporate loans grew from approximately 60 billion euros at the end of 2018 to over 300 billion euros by mid-2024, a five-fold expansion in roughly five and a half years. The study’s authors, Johanne Evrard, Wagner Eduardo Schuster, Fabian Wassmann, and Michael Wedow, described the lending impact as too small to have a meaningful or substantial economic impact. Banks engaging in securitisations exhibited average corporate loan growth of about 5% from 2018 to 2025, while banks that stayed away from these products managed just 1% growth over the same period, though this gap largely reflects differences in bank size and sophistication rather than a causal effect.
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