Between 2013 and 2024, seven of the twelve Septembers recorded a bitcoin decline, with an average performance of approximately -3.5%, the worst on the monthly chart. This negative streak, spanning from 2017 to 2022 with six consecutive down Septembers, was broken by +3.9% in 2023 and +7.3% in 2024. Several structural calendar factors explain this weakness: the Fed’s quarterly meeting, the simultaneous expiration of derivatives in the United States (quadruple witching), and Japanese and American fiscal year-end closings, which fuel tax-loss harvesting. With the rise of US spot ETFs and corporate bitcoin accumulation strategies like Strategy, the marginal buyer no longer follows the seasonal calendar, eroding the relevance of this historical pattern.
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