Bitcoin has closed September in the red 8 out of 13 times since 2013, with an average loss of 2.97% and a median of 2.44%, making it the worst month of the year. In September 2025, Bitcoin defied the trend with a 5.16% gain before October turned red for the first time since 2018 following a Trump tariff threat that triggered $19 billion in liquidations and 1.6 million traders being liquidated. Bitcoin opens September 2026 around $77,500 after an approximately 25% jump in August, with the Fed weighing its first rate hike since 2023 in a midterm election year context. The S&P 500 has also averaged a loss in September since 1945, with Yardeni researchers tracing the pattern back to 1928.
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