The 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, dropping to -0.299 in December 2025 before stabilizing around 0.18 in January 2026. From late August 2025 to early 2026, Bitcoin’s price fell roughly 43%, while the S&P 500 gained about 7% and gold surged 51%. After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a pullback exceeding 50% by mid-2026. Analysts attribute this decoupling to post-ETF deleveraging reducing the leverage that amplified Bitcoin’s price movements, with BlackRock citing a 10-year correlation figure of just 0.18.
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