Russia launched nighttime ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, resulting in the deaths of at least four individuals. This escalation marks a significant intensification of hostilities in the ongoing conflict that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Prediction markets reflect an increased perception of imminent Russian military maneuvers, particularly towards cities in eastern Ukraine like Sloviansk, where the odds of Russian advancement by the end of 2026 are currently estimated at 22%.
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