JPMorgan projects that global food inflation could reach approximately 5% on an annualized basis in the first half of 2027, nearly double the estimated 2.8% for the first half of 2026. This increase would be driven by a combination of factors: disruptions to nitrogen fertilizer supply chains due to Middle East conflict, and an exceptionally strong El Niño weather pattern with an 81% probability of forming by late 2026. Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, including India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia, would bear the heaviest burden, with food representing 30% to 50% of their consumer price index baskets.
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