Bitcoin is holding near $78,000 after being knocked back from an $81,000 high by hotter-than-expected PCE inflation data, which came in at 3.7% annually versus the 3.6% forecast. Five catalysts converge over the next 48 hours: a $6.4 billion options expiry on Deribit, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first monetary policy keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium, and Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report. The CME FedWatch tool reflects a dramatic shift in rate expectations, with just 38.4% probability of a September rate hike, down from 82% a month ago. U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted $2.6 billion last week, their best week since October, while a short squeeze wiped out roughly $3 billion in bearish bets in a single day.
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