Over $1.2 million was wagered on the Polymarket platform during the Eaton and Palisades fires that hit Los Angeles County in January 2025, killing 31 people and destroying more than 16,000 structures. These bets focused on fire-related outcomes such as acreage burned by specific dates, geographic spread, and containment timelines. Nine US senators, led by Californians Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, urged the CFTC to regulate or ban these predictive markets, warning of perverse incentives including potential arson for profit. Polymarket had previously been fined $1.4 million in 2022 for operating an unregistered trading facility.
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