The US 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.3% on Aug. 17 for the first time since June 2007, creating direct competition with Bitcoin for long-duration capital. Crypto-collateralized lending has fallen $22.53 billion from its $78.69 billion peak in Q3 2025, now standing at $56.16 billion according to Galaxy’s leverage report. This gradual credit reduction, with successive declines of roughly 10%, 5%, and 17% over three consecutive quarters, differs from the forced unwind of 2022 and suggests the market has already completed most of its deleveraging before facing current pressure. Bear scenarios target 30-year yields reaching 5.4% to 5.7%, dragging Bitcoin toward the $52,000 to $58,000 range, while bull scenarios bet on a retreat below 5.1% allowing a recovery toward $67,000 to $72,000.
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