Oil prices surged and US bond yields rose following the expiration of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. The end of the ceasefire heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increasing energy supply risk. Market participants are pricing in a 13.5% probability of crude oil reaching new all-time highs by year-end, up from 12% just 24 hours ago. The rise in bond yields reflects expectations of higher inflation and borrowing costs due to escalating Middle East tensions.
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