Three consecutive years of double-digit gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average have not altered historical odds of further growth. MarketWatch contributor Mark Hulbert draws on 129 years of data to establish that the probability of another double-digit year remains steady at 49%. This analysis challenges the notion that a winning streak signals an imminent market pullback, characterizing such reasoning as the fallacy of the gambler. According to research from Harvard and the University of Hong Kong, the current likelihood of a 40% decline over two years stands at 19%, below the five-year average of 26%.
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