Iran has resumed attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to reinstate a blockade of Iranian ports. This escalation is part of the ongoing US-Iran conflict that has continued to disrupt global shipping routes in 2026. Prediction market pricing now suggests a 33.5% likelihood of the US lifting the blockade by August 31, 2026, down from 40% just 24 hours ago. Short-term probabilities are even lower, with the August 15, 2026 sub-market reflecting just 15% odds.
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