The XRP derivatives market shows a total open interest of $2.36 billion, more than six times the $379 million in 24-hour spot volume, creating a leverage imbalance that traders must navigate. Binance saw its stablecoin-margined XRP open interest fall to $186 million on July 31, its lowest since April 2025, while Bybit reached $229 million, taking the lead for the first time. XRP trades around $1.03, roughly 3% above the $1 psychological level the market closely monitors with Polymarket pricing a 71.5% probability of testing that level in August. A stress scenario on Bybit could expose between $52 million and $112 million of positions to forced liquidations depending on assumptions. The Fed held its target rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 while bitcoin remains exposed to volatility that could amplify XRP moves around the critical $1 level.
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