Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 stand at 23%. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, says if the bill fails, it will enter a « walking dead » state but won’t be permanently defeated, with a possible window in September or December during the lame duck session. If it fails, the industry could fall back on the SEC-CFTC joint interpretation released in March, which classifies Bitcoin and other assets as digital commodities. However, these regulatory rules are less durable than legislation and could be challenged in court or reversed by a future administration. Hougan remains confident: « Crypto will be fine » thanks to its momentum that will reshape finance for decades, regardless of short-term regulatory developments.
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