Wintermute reported that institutional investors accounted for a record 72% of spot OTC trading volume in H1 2026, up from roughly 61% in H2 2024, a structural shift that makes broad-based altcoin rallies significantly less likely. Realized volatility has declined from 70% to 45% in the current cycle, as institutional order flow replaces retail-driven speculation as the marginal price setter. The tokenized real-world asset market reached $31 billion in H1 2026, with average monthly transfer volume more than doubling to $9 billion. Altcoin options notional volume on the OTC desk increased 3.4 times from H2 2025 to H1 2026.
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