The American Petroleum Institute, the major U.S. oil trade group, opposes the voluntary toll proposal in the Strait of Hormuz backed by Gulf actors. This stance reflects concerns over threats to free tanker passage amid the ongoing Iran-U.S./Israel confrontation over maritime control and sanctions. Washington has cautioned firms about the risk of sanctions if they comply with Iranian fee demands. Market pricing assigns only a 0.4% probability to the U.S. implementing its own tolls by July 31, 2026, and the upcoming expiration of the 60-day pause on Iranian tolls remains a key indicator to watch.
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