The Federal Reserve is holding a closely watched meeting, with markets pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate hike. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range since June. According to projections, core PCE inflation is expected to reach 3.3% in 2026, with a median federal funds rate projected at 3.8%. Probabilities vary by meeting date: 20.6% for July 2026, versus 68.5% for September and 73.5% for October. Jerome Powell’s remarks during the post-meeting press conference will be closely monitored for any indication on the future direction of monetary policy.
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