In the US mid-term elections, the favorites listed by the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket delivered the correct outcome in 98% and 98.4% of races, respectively. Kalshi also says its traders identified the winner of the Senate race 115 minutes before CNN made its announcement, with an average accuracy rate of at least 99%. For next year’s French presidential election, Polymarket ranks Marine Le Pen first with 44.5% of the vote, ahead of David Lisnard at 15.3% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 13%, on 166.8 million dollars in trading volume. Kalshi shows similar scores, but records only 1.7 million dollars in trading volume. These results remain constrained in France, where the Autorité nationale des jeux ordered Polymarket to be blocked and Kalshi is also inaccessible, while both platforms face increased legal scrutiny in the United States.
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