Kalshi markets estimate a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate at its September meeting. The effective federal funds rate stands at 3.63%, with the target range’s upper limit at 3.75%. Market participants strongly favor the « Pause-Pause-Pause » scenario for Fed decisions from June to September, with a 69.5% likelihood. The « Pause-Pause-Cut » trajectory shows only 0.9%, reflecting minimal expectations for a near-term rate reduction.
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