American consumers account for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, making any contraction in their spending particularly dangerous for the economy. Since the COVID-19 recession, wages have not grown faster than prices, and this trend has continued for six months, partly because of the war with Iran. Despite low unemployment, job creation remains weak and hiring is limited, reducing the likelihood of faster wage growth. If incomes fail to keep pace with prices, consumers could take on debt, exceed their budgets and cut back on spending.
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