Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the conflict with Russia may extend into the winter months as Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure intensify. Despite diplomatic efforts from the United States, no significant breakthrough has been announced between Moscow and Kyiv. Markets have reduced the probability of a ceasefire by the end of 2026, dropping from 34% to 23.5% in a single day. The market now forecasts only a 12.5% chance of a ceasefire agreement by October 2026, indicating expectations that the conflict will continue through the cold season.
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