On-chain analyst Willy Woo argues that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may be ending and the market could adopt the 6-8 year debt cycle of traditional finance. Bitcoin trades around $78,011, having lost nearly half its value from its October 2025 peak of $126,198. Bitcoin’s new issuance has fallen to 0.8% of total supply since April 2024, and the 2028 halving will reduce it to approximately 0.4%, already below gold miners who add 1.7% annually. The introduction of spot ETFs, absent in previous halving cycles, represents a major structural break. Woo warns that 2026 could be Bitcoin’s first real test, as it has never experienced a true business-cycle downturn.
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