A working paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published on September 15 shows that Bitcoin transfer-value estimates vary by up to sixfold depending on the calculation method used. The authors identify three structural sources of divergence: transaction aggregation, smart-contract programmability, and cross-chain comparisons. The study examines 13 million active contracts, including approximately 1.4 million tokens, and notes that trading activity is heavily concentrated around stablecoins. On Ethereum, stablecoins are more associated with smart-contract interactions, while on Tron they are more commonly held outside these contracts. The BIS concludes that on-chain indicators should be viewed as noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity.
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