The Nasdaq-100 has been choppy within a range of roughly 27,200 to 31,000 since May, and October’s push above the top failed to hold. As long as the 27,200 floor holds, the consolidation remains intact, while a close below that level would change the outlook. The 10-year Treasury’s real yield, near 2.79%, is the main headwind for growth-stock valuations as inflation expectations decline. After semiconductors fell 32% relative to the S&P 500, close to the 29% decline recorded from mid-2024 to spring 2025, a move in the SMH/SPY ratio above 0.72 would indicate a return of leadership to the sector, which reports earnings next week.
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