U.S. refineries are reducing gasoline output in favor of diesel and jet fuel, which offer higher profit margins. This shift reflects tightening global supply of these middle distillates, while gasoline yields are falling below their historical averages. The change could tighten gasoline supply and affect crude oil price forecasts. Market participants consequently reduced the probability of crude oil reaching new highs by December 31 from 10% to 8.5% in the past 24 hours. Announcements from OPEC and the International Energy Agency, along with refinery production data, will be monitored to assess whether the trend persists.
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