U.S. efforts to develop energy independence have reduced, over several decades, the risk of fuel shortages during a global energy crisis. This policy has limited the risk of disruption, but does not shield consumers from fluctuations in global oil prices. The probability that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by December 31 has fallen to 7.5%, down from 10% the previous day. For the April 1, 2027 market, the probability of reaching a new record has declined to 20%, compared with 24% previously. OPEC production decisions, developments in U.S. energy policy, geopolitical tensions, and changes in global demand remain the main factors that could alter these forecasts.
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