U.S. electricity demand is expected to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, according to the Energy Information Administration, driven by the growing power consumption of artificial intelligence data centers. The increase is placing pressure on utilities and grid operators, which are struggling to meet the sector’s rising electricity requirements. In Texas, grid constraints are already evident as PJM capacity auctions reach their price caps and the large-load queue is dominated by data center projects. Prediction markets assign a 34.5% probability to a Texas moratorium by December 2028, compared with 3% for a similar moratorium in Louisiana by the end of 2026. Decisions by the Texas Legislature, Governor Greg Abbott, ERCOT and PUCT, as well as any changes to data center incentives in Louisiana, will be decisive.
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