The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has diverted 12 commercial ships attempting to breach a naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal waters as of July 25. The U.S. military has also boarded one vessel and disabled another, demonstrating a robust enforcement posture. These actions reflect escalating maritime tensions between the U.S. and Iran in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. The market prices a 22% probability of a Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure by September 30, although the probability for late August dropped from 18% to 11.5% in 24 hours.
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