The United States, Denmark, and Greenland have signed an agreement expanding U.S. military access and security cooperation in the Arctic, aimed at countering Russian and Chinese influence in the region. The text keeps Greenland’s sovereignty firmly under Denmark, but remains pending parliamentary approval from both Copenhagen and Nuuk. Prediction markets reflect growing skepticism: the probability of signing by September 23 has risen from 64% to 75%, yet the odds of any territorial acquisition of Greenland by the end of 2026 remain low at 5.9%. Analysts suggest the deal may be more about optics than substantive change.
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