U.S. core inflation increased by 0.3% in October, while overall inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis. Official year-over-year rates were not published because October 2025 data were unavailable following the federal government shutdown. The monthly figures indicate that inflationary pressures remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Markets now assign a greater probability to inflation readings above 3.6%, increasing uncertainty and volatility. Participants will watch for any data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve officials’ comments, Treasury yields, and inflation breakevens.
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