Ukraine’s Defense Minister has announced that Ukraine is advancing the development of its own ballistic missiles, with intentions to launch an attack on Russia within three to six months. This development marks a significant shift in Ukraine’s military capabilities, moving away from reliance on drones and cruise missiles for long-range attacks. Ballistic missiles, known for their difficulty to intercept, could heighten military tensions in the region. The announcement increases the perceived probability of a NATO-Russia military clash, with current market pricing at 23% YES odds for such a conflict by December 31, 2026. Observers should monitor responses from NATO and Russia, as well as the progress of Ukraine’s missile program and any indications of testing or deployment timelines.
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