The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at reduced levels. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to observe and shadow merchant vessels without carrying out confirmed attacks. This situation is part of the broader 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict, keeping this strategic waterway under heightened tension. Prediction markets pricing a return to normal by September 30 now show a probability of 15.5%, down sharply from 32% a week ago.
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