The United Arab Emirates has reached a record production of 4.1 million barrels per day in June 2026, just weeks after exiting OPEC on May 1, 2026. This increase marks a major shift in the country’s oil strategy, strengthening its independence from the cartel. The immediate market reaction remained limited due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In the long term, this additional supply could exert downward pressure on prices, with prediction markets forecasting a low probability of reaching a new all-time high before September 30.
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