Vera Research compares the pricing of a retail prediction market (Polymarket) and an institutional futures market (CME 30-day Fed Funds futures) on the same question: what will the Fed decide at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting. Across 50 paired sessions from May 8 to July 22, 2026, both venues moved in the same direction with a rank correlation of +0.76. Polymarket showed a consistent offset of approximately 2.4 basis points below the futures, holding beyond twice the conversion resolution for 32 consecutive sessions. This gap, measured but not explained, could stem from a settlement difference, a hedging premium, or a genuine divergence in market perception.
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