An analysis by Al-Monitor indicates that former President Donald Trump’s campaign against Iran could result in a long-lasting and unpopular conflict, reminiscent of the post-9/11 ‘forever wars.’ Markets interpret this analysis as reducing the likelihood of a diplomatic agreement, with attention shifting toward potential military actions. Current odds for the inclusion of Iran Reconstruction Funding in a bilateral deal by end-2026 remain low, hovering around 11.5% for a YES outcome. Negotiations involve U.S. Chief Negotiator Mike Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, with mediation from Qatar and Pakistan.
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