President Donald Trump has threatened Iran with « economic warfare » if Tehran does not comply with U.S. demands. This rhetoric is aimed at exerting economic pressure rather than initiating direct military conflict. Market participants interpret these threats as reducing the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026, as evidenced by declining expectations for Iran Reconstruction Funding to be included in any potential agreement. This situation arises amid ongoing negotiations, with potential mediators from Qatar and Pakistan.
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