U.S. Treasury yields face a key test at 4.8%, with a sustained move above that level potentially creating meaningful problems for other asset classes, according to Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. The U.S. national debt and budget deficit now exceed $40 trillion, while more than $8.4 trillion of U.S. government securities are scheduled to roll over between now and year-end. The Treasury Department’s efforts, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, to talk yields lower have failed, and Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for U.S. dollar investment-grade issuance in 2026 upward to $2.3 trillion. HSBC also raised its end-2026 forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.65% from 4.30%, reflecting increased caution on developed-market bonds. Michael Chen, general manager of Noah ARK Hong Kong, warned that a disorderly rise in long-term Treasury yields could trigger repricing across assets dependent on long-term cash flows, including high-valuation growth stocks and commercial real estate.
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