U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, reaching 4.15% to 4.37% on two-year notes and 4.71% on the 10-year, while the benchmark rate sits between 3.5% and 3.75%. This configuration sends a clear signal to the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, that the market is pricing in at least a 25 basis point rate hike by October 2026. Warsh held rates steady at his first FOMC meeting in June 2026 but removed the forward guidance language that had previously hinted at potential rate cuts. The prospect of tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar threatens to weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Persistent inflation, higher oil prices, and revised growth forecasts are driving the tension in the bond market.
Source: Read the original article
