JPMorgan strategists believe the U.S. midterm elections could reshuffle stock market winners depending on which party controls Congress. The bank identified stock baskets for three scenarios: gridlock, a Blue Wave, or a Red wall. Historically, gridlock has been the most favorable scenario with the S&P 500 gaining 21% over a two-year congressional term versus 18% under single-party control. Sector beneficiaries vary by outcome, with healthcare, defense, infrastructure and select technology favored under gridlock, while hospitals, environmental services and renewable-exposed utilities would benefit in a Blue Wave scenario.
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