The S&P 500 is approaching record highs while 84% of its components trade at least 10% below their all-time highs, with 59% down 20% or more. This divergence stems from extreme market concentration: just ten companies generated roughly 70% of the index’s gains since late March, with Nvidia alone accounting for about 13% of the rally. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September after markets initially expected three cuts, representing a 175 basis-point swing in the expected policy path. Brent crude has hit $106 per barrel and inflation remains nearly twice the Fed’s 2% target. Analysts at the Kobeissi Letter nonetheless suggest this setup could represent an opportunity if macroeconomic conditions improve.
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