The S&P 500 has struggled to decisively break above 7,800 points since first reaching that level in late July, while repeatedly testing its rising 50-day moving average. The 14-day RSI has recorded lower highs since May, forming a negative momentum divergence. Similar conditions preceded the roughly 10% correction from late 2024 to early 2025 and the approximately 10% decline in late 2025. The current pattern does not guarantee another significant fall, but additional downside follow-through would complete the bearish formation, even though buyers have previously intervened during similar technical setups.
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